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Amplifying Unsupported Claims About Undocumented Immigrant Population Size

Steve Tanner amplified unsupported claims that the United States contains 40–50 million undocumented immigrants.

“40-50 million”

In a reply posted on X on October 25, 2025, Steve Tanner responded to a post claiming that former DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas had allowed “20 million illegals to flood our nation” by writing:

“40-50 million”

The comment appeared to endorse or expand upon claims about the size of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States.

Available demographic estimates from government agencies and major nonpartisan research organizations place the undocumented immigrant population far below the figures referenced in Tanner’s comment. In 2025, the Pew Research Center estimated the unauthorized immigrant population at approximately 14 million in 2023, describing that figure as a record high.

The Migration Policy Institute estimated approximately 13.7 million unauthorized immigrants lived in the United States as of mid-2023. The Center for Migration Studies estimated the undocumented population at 12.2 million in 2023.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has also published estimates significantly below the 40–50 million figure referenced in the exchange. DHS’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics estimated the unauthorized immigrant population at 11 million as of January 2022 in its 2018–2022 estimates report.

These estimates differ somewhat because researchers use different methodologies and data sources. But they cluster around roughly 12–14 million for 2023, not 40–50 million. Tanner’s figure is therefore not supported by the major available estimates.

Critics argue that elected officials have a responsibility to avoid amplifying unsupported or exaggerated claims, particularly on subjects involving immigration, crime, and national identity, where inflammatory rhetoric can contribute to fear, misinformation, and hostility toward immigrant communities.

Supporters may argue Tanner was expressing broader concern about border enforcement and long-term migration trends rather than citing a formal demographic estimate.

Original Sources